Bridgeport Islanders at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Bridgeport Islanders

1:4

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

BRIHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

21%79%

xG: 1.42.7
High danger: 34
Chances: 49
Shots: 2328

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal28

4Scoring chances9

3High-danger chances4

1.38Expected goals2.73

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–12	2–2	2–1	0.5–1.1
2nd	7–12	0–5	0–2	0.3–1.2
3rd	10–4	2–2	1–1	0.5–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Henrik Tikkanen

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 24
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.73
GSAx: -1.27

Mitch Gibson

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 22
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.38
GSAx: +0.38

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:27Grant Cruikshank (0–1)grade A · rebound · 27 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
1st 4:32Penalty
1st 10:32Penalty
1st 13:08Penalty
1st 16:16Penalty
1st 18:57Penalty
2nd 3:28Graeme Clarke (0–2)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
2nd 12:13Penalty
2nd 18:22Andrew Cristall (0–3)high · 9 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
3rd 13:31Ilya Protas (0–4)high · 8 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
3rd 14:17Penalty
3rd 15:15Chris Terry (1–4)5v4 · high · 10 ft · beat Mitch Gibson