Syracuse Crunch at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Syracuse Crunch

1:3

Final

Providence Bruins

The sheet

SYRPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

30%70%

xG: 1.92.5
High danger: 13
Chances: 87
Shots: 2429

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

PRO above the lineSYR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 59% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal29

8Scoring chances7

1High-danger chances3

1.88Expected goals2.46

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–8	2–2	1–1	0.6–0.8
2nd	10–7	4–4	0–1	0.8–0.9
3rd	6–14	2–1	0–1	0.4–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SYR	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ryan Fanti

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.46
GSAx: -0.54

Simon Zajicek

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 23
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.88
GSAx: +0.88

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:01Georgii Merkulov (0–1)low · 38 ft · beat Ryan Fanti
1st 9:51Penalty
1st 9:51Penalty
1st 15:16Conor Geekie (1–1)low · 27 ft · beat Simon Zajicek
2nd 10:59Georgii Merkulov (1–2)medium · 17 ft · beat Ryan Fanti
3rd 19:41Georgii Merkulov (1–3)empty net · low · 100 ft · beat Ryan Fanti