AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, December 20

Milwaukee Admirals at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Milwaukee Admirals
2:5
Final
Texas Stars

The sheet

MILTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
24%76%
xG
2.12.7
High danger
25
Chances
312
Shots
2426

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TEX above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal26
3Scoring chances12
2High-danger chances5
2.11Expected goals2.68

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st3–140–80–40.1–1.7
2nd12–82–21–11.0–0.6
3rd9–41–21–01.0–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MIL−4−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MIL40:00 of the 3rd20:0019:52+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray
Shots faced
26
Saves
21
Allowed
5
xGA
2.68
GSAx
-2.32
Rémi Poirier
Shots faced
24
Saves
22
Allowed
2
xGA
2.11
GSAx
+0.11

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:04Penalty
  • 1st 2:36Arttu Hyry (0–1)5v4 · high · 12 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 1st 9:19Gavin White (0–2)low · 59 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 1st 10:11Cross Hanas (0–3)low · 33 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 1st 18:20Penalty
  • 1st 18:20Penalty
  • 2nd 5:24Cameron Hughes (0–4)medium · 19 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 6:55Penalty
  • 2nd 6:55Penalty
  • 2nd 19:48Penalty
  • 2nd 19:58Penalty
  • 2nd 19:58Penalty
  • 2nd 19:58Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 0:28Penalty
  • 3rd 3:28Kalan Lind (1–4)low · 50 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
  • 3rd 12:01Daniel Carr (2–4)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
  • 3rd 15:41Penalty
  • 3rd 16:42Penalty
  • 3rd 19:33Jack Becker (2–5)empty net · low · 128 ft · beat Matthew Murray