San Jose Barracuda at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

San Jose Barracuda

4:3

Final / SO

Ontario Reign

The sheet

SJONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

9%91%

xG: 2.05.0
High danger: 112
Chances: 613
Shots: 2131

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal31

6Scoring chances13

1High-danger chances12

1.96Expected goals5.04

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–8	1–5	0–4	0.5–1.4
2nd	7–7	2–2	1–2	0.8–0.8
3rd	7–10	3–4	0–4	0.7–2.0
OT	0–6	0–2	0–2	0.0–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	2:21	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jakub Skarek

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 28
Allowed: 3
xGA: 5.04
GSAx: +2.04

Isaiah Saville

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 18
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.95
GSAx: -1.05

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:10Penalty
1st 3:14Egor Afanasyev (1–0)low · 54 ft · beat Isaiah Saville
1st 8:36Martin Chromiak (1–1)grade A · rebound · 14 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
1st 13:09Penalty
1st 16:28Penalty
1st 16:55Andre Lee (1–2)4v5 · grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
1st 17:30Egor Afanasyev (2–2)5v4 · medium · 37 ft · beat Isaiah Saville
2nd 13:42Penalty
2nd 15:29Penalty
2nd 19:47Penalty
3rd 1:14Penalty
3rd 3:31Penalty
3rd 6:04Penalty
3rd 13:36Penalty
3rd 13:49Oliver Wahlstrom (3–2)5v4 · low · 56 ft · beat Isaiah Saville
3rd 15:39Penalty
3rd 19:17Andre Lee (3–3)grade A · rebound · 21 ft · beat Jakub Skarek