Coachella Valley Firebirds at Bakersfield Condors

Dignity Health Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Coachella Valley Firebirds

2:3

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

CVBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

48%52%

xG: 3.83.2
High danger: 56
Chances: 1011
Shots: 3730

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 47% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal30

10Scoring chances11

5High-danger chances6

3.80Expected goals3.23

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–11	0–2	0–1	0.5–0.8
2nd	14–3	3–1	1–0	1.3–0.2
3rd	16–16	7–8	4–5	2.0–2.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CV	3	10:06 of the 3rd	9:54	9:54	+0.014 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Connor Ungar

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 35
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.80
GSAx: +1.80

Victor Östman

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 27
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.23
GSAx: +0.23

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:08Penalty
1st 15:36Isaac Howard (0–1)medium · wrist · 22 ft · beat Victor Östman
2nd 1:50Isaac Howard (0–2)medium · wrist · 33 ft · beat Victor Östman
2nd 4:55Penalty
2nd 12:02Penalty
2nd 15:54Penalty
2nd 19:34Penalty
3rd 10:06Isaac Howard (0–3)grade A · wrist · rebound · 14 ft · beat Victor Östman
3rd 13:34Jagger Firkus (1–3)low · wrist · 15 ft · beat Connor Ungar
3rd 15:46Penalty
3rd 17:17Eduard Šalé (2–3)5v4 · grade A · wrist · rebound · 15 ft · beat Connor Ungar