Rockford IceHogs at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Rockford IceHogs

1:4

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

RFDMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

46%54%

xG: 3.13.5
High danger: 76
Chances: 1112
Shots: 2738

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 61% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal38

11Scoring chances12

7High-danger chances6

3.07Expected goals3.49

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–14	2–2	2–1	1.1–1.1
2nd	5–18	1–9	1–4	0.3–1.9
3rd	13–6	8–1	4–1	1.7–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 34
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.49
GSAx: -0.51

Domenic DiVincentiis

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 26
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.07
GSAx: +2.07

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:23Brett Seney (1–0)grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
1st 0:50Penalty
1st 14:49Samuel Fagemo (1–1)low · 45 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 3:44David Gustafsson (1–2)high · 8 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 10:03Tyrel Bauer (1–3)medium · 11 ft · beat Drew Commesso
2nd 13:45Penalty
2nd 14:01Penalty
2nd 19:43Penalty
2nd 19:43Penalty
3rd 2:36Penalty
3rd 8:04Penalty
3rd 17:14Jaret Anderson-Dolan (1–4)empty net · high · 14 ft · beat Drew Commesso