Hershey Bears at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Mohegan Arena at Casey Plaza · Wilkes-Barre, PA

Hershey Bears

1:3

Final

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

The sheet

HERWBSSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

40%60%

xG: 2.22.1
High danger: 12
Chances: 87
Shots: 2725

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

WBS above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 61% WBS.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal25

8Scoring chances7

1High-danger chances2

2.18Expected goals2.14

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–11	5–4	0–1	1.2–1.0
2nd	8–9	3–2	1–0	0.7–0.7
3rd	5–5	0–1	0–1	0.2–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	4:46	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sergei Murashov

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 26
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.18
GSAx: +1.18

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 22
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.14
GSAx: -0.86

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:28Penalty
1st 4:06Penalty
2nd 7:04Zach Gallant (0–1)low · snap · 46 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 7:58Penalty
2nd 13:57Penalty
2nd 19:45Penalty
3rd 5:15Matt Dumba (0–2)low · 24 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 10:26Penalty
3rd 13:51Andrew Cristall (1–2)low · 49 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
3rd 17:51Penalty
3rd 18:28Owen Pickering (1–3)empty net · low · 86 ft · beat Clay Stevenson