Springfield Thunderbirds at Charlotte Checkers

Bojangles Coliseum · Charlotte, NC

Springfield Thunderbirds

3:4

Final / OT

Charlotte Checkers

The sheet

SPRCLTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

38%62%

xG: 2.73.4
High danger: 45
Chances: 910
Shots: 2239

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CLT above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 64% CLT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal39

9Scoring chances10

4High-danger chances5

2.69Expected goals3.44

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	3–8	2–2	1–1	0.3–0.7
2nd	5–17	2–5	1–2	0.7–1.5
3rd	13–7	5–2	2–2	1.5–0.7
OT	1–7	0–1	0–0	0.1–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	1:28	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Georgii Romanov

Shots faced: 39
Saves: 35
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.44
GSAx: -0.56

Cooper Black

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 19
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.69
GSAx: -0.31

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:18Penalty
1st 15:49Wilmer Skoog (0–1)high · 11 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
2nd 1:42Penalty
2nd 5:30Penalty
2nd 9:31Matthew Peca (1–1)medium · 14 ft · beat Cooper Black
2nd 13:21Penalty
3rd 4:00Penalty
3rd 5:57Jack Devine (1–2)4v5 · high · 7 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
3rd 11:11Dylan Peterson (2–2)high · 7 ft · beat Cooper Black
3rd 11:59Nolan Foote (2–3)low · 40 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
3rd 18:24Jakub Stancl (3–3)high · 8 ft · beat Cooper Black
OT 4:43Gracyn Sawchyn (3–4)low · 18 ft · beat Georgii Romanov