AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, December 21

San Jose Barracuda at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

San Jose Barracuda
6:3
Final
Ontario Reign

The sheet

SJONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
68%32%
xG
3.12.6
High danger
83
Chances
128
Shots
2729

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ONT above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal29
12Scoring chances8
8High-danger chances3
3.15Expected goals2.58

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–114–43–11.3–1.2
2nd8–106–35–11.4–0.8
3rd9–82–10–10.5–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ONT−2−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ONT212:09 of the 3rd7:516:39+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Gabriel Carriere
Shots faced
29
Saves
26
Allowed
3
xGA
2.58
GSAx
-0.42
Mattias Sholl
Shots faced
26
Saves
21
Allowed
5
xGA
3.04
GSAx
-1.96

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:15Penalty
  • 1st 3:15Penalty
  • 1st 4:49Jimmy Huntington (1–0)5v4 · grade A · 5 ft · beat Mattias Sholl
  • 1st 5:06Penalty
  • 1st 5:06Penalty
  • 1st 12:43Jared Wright (1–1)medium · 6 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 1st 16:01Kasper Halttunen (2–1)medium · 12 ft · beat Mattias Sholl
  • 1st 16:30Shane Bowers (3–1)low · 44 ft · beat Mattias Sholl
  • 2nd 4:50Penalty
  • 2nd 4:50Penalty
  • 2nd 4:50Penalty
  • 2nd 9:39Filip Bystedt (4–1)high · 7 ft · beat Mattias Sholl
  • 2nd 12:30Penalty
  • 2nd 12:30Penalty
  • 2nd 12:30Penalty
  • 2nd 12:30Penalty
  • 2nd 12:30Penalty
  • 2nd 12:30Penalty
  • 2nd 18:46Koehn Ziemmer (4–2)low · 45 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 2nd 19:28Penalty
  • 3rd 12:31Penalty
  • 3rd 15:44Jack Hughes (4–3)low · 38 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 3rd 18:49Patrick Giles (5–3)empty net · low · 118 ft · beat Mattias Sholl
  • 3rd 19:35Pavol Regenda (6–3)empty net · medium · 23 ft