Belleville Senators at Toronto Marlies

Scotiabank Arena · Toronto, ON

Belleville Senators

2:3

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

BELTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

30%70%

xG: 2.13.0
High danger: 23
Chances: 413
Shots: 3233

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 63% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal33

4Scoring chances13

2High-danger chances3

2.10Expected goals3.04

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–16	2–4	1–1	0.7–1.2
2nd	12–12	1–5	0–1	0.8–1.1
3rd	11–5	1–4	1–1	0.6–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BEL	2	15:48 of the 3rd	4:12	4:12	+0.020 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Hunter Shepard

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 30
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.04
GSAx: +0.04

Artur Akhtyamov

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 30
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.10
GSAx: +0.10

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:14Penalty
1st 5:31Penalty
1st 8:21Penalty
1st 15:46Garrett Pilon (1–0)low · 52 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
2nd 4:32Vinni Lettieri (1–1)low · 51 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
2nd 7:25Penalty
2nd 11:28Matt Benning (1–2)low · 68 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
2nd 12:15Penalty
2nd 16:26Penalty
3rd 8:04Penalty
3rd 10:54Penalty
3rd 15:48Luke Haymes (1–3)medium · 27 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
3rd 19:04Wyatt Bongiovanni (2–3)high · 9 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov