Hartford Wolf Pack at Bridgeport Islanders

Total Mortgage Arena · Bridgeport, CT

Hartford Wolf Pack

5:2

Final

Bridgeport Islanders

The sheet

HFDBRISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

68%32%

xG: 2.22.3
High danger: 51
Chances: 86
Shots: 2727

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BRI above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% BRI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal27

8Scoring chances6

5High-danger chances1

2.18Expected goals2.31

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–6	4–3	2–1	0.7–0.8
2nd	10–13	2–1	1–0	0.6–0.9
3rd	11–8	2–2	2–0	0.8–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dylan Garand

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 25
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.31
GSAx: +0.31

Parker Gahagen

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 22
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.18
GSAx: -2.82

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:36Zakary Karpa (1–0)high · 8 ft · beat Parker Gahagen
1st 5:33Penalty
1st 11:49Brendan Brisson (2–0)high · 10 ft · beat Parker Gahagen
2nd 2:38Penalty
2nd 4:16Penalty
2nd 11:58Penalty
2nd 15:45Matthew Maggio (2–1)low · 34 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 6:14Alex Jefferies (2–2)low · 48 ft · beat Dylan Garand
3rd 11:08Daniel Walcott (3–2)low · 10 ft · beat Parker Gahagen
3rd 11:25Penalty
3rd 11:30Brendan Brisson (4–2)5v4 · grade A · 18 ft · beat Parker Gahagen
3rd 13:22Penalty
3rd 17:27Connor Mackey (5–2)empty net · low · 120 ft · beat Parker Gahagen