Toronto Marlies at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Toronto Marlies

4:3

Final / SO

Utica Comets

The sheet

TORUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

40%60%

xG: 2.33.0
High danger: 44
Chances: 813
Shots: 2125

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

UTC above the lineTOR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal25

8Scoring chances13

4High-danger chances4

2.35Expected goals2.99

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–4	1–2	0–0	0.4–0.5
2nd	6–9	3–4	2–0	0.7–0.8
3rd	9–11	4–6	2–4	1.3–1.6
OT	0–1	0–1	0–0	0.0–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
UTC	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	5:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Vyacheslav Peksa

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 22
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.99
GSAx: -0.01

Nico Daws

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 18
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.35
GSAx: -0.65

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:54Benoit-Olivier Groulx (1–0)low · 62 ft · beat Nico Daws
1st 14:15Penalty
1st 16:08Penalty
1st 19:15Penalty
2nd 3:02Penalty
2nd 4:32Cam Squires (1–1)5v4 · medium · 34 ft · beat Vyacheslav Peksa
2nd 5:52Logan Shaw (2–1)high · 13 ft · beat Nico Daws
2nd 9:21Penalty
3rd 0:14Michael Pezzetta (3–1)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Nico Daws
3rd 5:28Penalty
3rd 8:37Penalty
3rd 11:05Penalty
3rd 14:59Shane Lachance (3–2)medium · 12 ft · beat Vyacheslav Peksa
3rd 18:23Penalty
3rd 19:57Shane Lachance (3–3)5v4 · grade A · 17 ft · beat Vyacheslav Peksa
OT 4:06Penalty