Hershey Bears at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

Mohegan Arena at Casey Plaza · Wilkes-Barre, PA

Hershey Bears

2:5

Final

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

The sheet

HERWBSSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

22%78%

xG: 1.92.4
High danger: 16
Chances: 811
Shots: 2121

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

WBS above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 61% WBS.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal21

8Scoring chances11

1High-danger chances6

1.87Expected goals2.44

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	3–13	2–9	0–5	0.4–1.8
2nd	9–5	1–1	0–1	0.6–0.3
3rd	9–3	5–1	1–0	0.9–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Sergei Murashov

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 19
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.87
GSAx: -0.13

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 12
Saves: 11
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.05
GSAx: +0.05

Garin Bjorklund

Shots faced: 9
Saves: 5
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.40
GSAx: -2.60

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:04Nolan Renwick (0–1)high · tip · rebound · 8 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
1st 3:36Raivis Ansons (0–2)medium · wrist · rebound · 32 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
1st 8:30Bogdan Trineyev (1–2)low · wrist · 29 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
1st 8:45Penalty
1st 10:58Gabe Klassen (1–3)medium · snap · 25 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
1st 14:10Gabe Klassen (1–4)medium · backhand · 28 ft · beat Garin Bjorklund
1st 16:24Penalty
1st 17:15Phil Tomasino (1–5)5v4 · high · snap · 14 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
1st 19:09Penalty
2nd 1:27Penalty
2nd 6:56Penalty
2nd 12:20Penalty
2nd 14:27Penalty
3rd 1:12Ivan Miroshnichenko (2–5)medium · wrist · 13 ft · beat Sergei Murashov
3rd 1:26Penalty
3rd 4:54Penalty
3rd 8:15Penalty
3rd 11:38Penalty
3rd 14:25Penalty