Providence Bruins at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Providence Bruins

7:1

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

PROSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

91%9%

xG: 4.11.7
High danger: 70
Chances: 152
Shots: 3126

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 42% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal26

15Scoring chances2

7High-danger chances0

4.11Expected goals1.71

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–7	7–1	6–0	2.2–0.3
2nd	9–9	4–0	0–0	0.9–0.6
3rd	8–10	4–1	1–0	1.0–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	6	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.001 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Luke Cavallin

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 25
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.71
GSAx: +0.71

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 16
Saves: 12
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.46
GSAx: -1.54

Georgii Romanov

Shots faced: 15
Saves: 12
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.64
GSAx: -1.36

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:08Dans Locmelis (1–0)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 2:25Brett Harrison (2–0)low · 20 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 2:56Penalty
1st 2:56Penalty
1st 10:48Penalty
1st 14:04Penalty
1st 15:37Matthew Poitras (3–0)5v4 · medium · 21 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 19:30Penalty
2nd 4:59Patrick Brown (4–0)low · 25 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
2nd 7:17Penalty
2nd 7:17Penalty
2nd 7:17Penalty
2nd 8:04Georgii Merkulov (5–0)medium · 39 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
2nd 9:53Penalty
2nd 12:58Penalty
2nd 13:05Matthew Poitras (6–0)5v4 · medium · 42 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
2nd 14:34Penalty
3rd 1:50Penalty
3rd 5:37Penalty
3rd 10:03Calle Rosén (6–1)low · 45 ft · beat Luke Cavallin
3rd 16:37Ty Gallagher (7–1)medium · 11 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
3rd 17:25Penalty
3rd 19:56Penalty
3rd 19:56Penalty