Grand Rapids Griffins at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Grand Rapids Griffins

3:0

Final

Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

GRMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

71%29%

xG: 3.62.2
High danger: 53
Chances: 129
Shots: 4225

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MIL above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 41% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

42Shots on goal25

12Scoring chances9

5High-danger chances3

3.55Expected goals2.23

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–7	1–3	0–0	0.7–0.5
2nd	17–10	6–5	2–3	1.6–1.2
3rd	14–8	5–1	3–0	1.2–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MIL	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 42
Saves: 39
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.55
GSAx: +0.55

Sebastian Cossa

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 25
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.23
GSAx: +2.23

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:44Penalty
1st 15:18Penalty
2nd 10:17Penalty
2nd 10:17Penalty
2nd 12:47Penalty
2nd 13:31Erik Gustafsson (1–0)5v4 · medium · 18 ft · beat Matthew Murray
2nd 13:39Penalty
2nd 14:05Sheldon Dries (2–0)5v4 · high · 22 ft · beat Matthew Murray
2nd 15:10Penalty
2nd 15:10Penalty
2nd 15:10Penalty
2nd 15:39Penalty
3rd 10:00Penalty
3rd 19:26Austin Watson (3–0)empty net · low · 40 ft · beat Matthew Murray