Texas Stars at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Texas Stars

4:8

Final

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

TEXRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

43%57%

xG: 3.03.4
High danger: 67
Chances: 1113
Shots: 2332

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 43% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal32

11Scoring chances13

6High-danger chances7

3.05Expected goals3.38

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–12	3–3	2–2	0.9–1.0
2nd	7–10	4–6	2–4	0.8–1.3
3rd	7–10	4–4	2–1	1.4–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TEX	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Stanislav Berezhnoy

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 19
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.05
GSAx: -0.95

Arno Tiefensee

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 15
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.38
GSAx: -1.62

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 13
Saves: 9
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.00
GSAx: -3.00

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:14Matthew Seminoff (1–0)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Stanislav Berezhnoy
1st 3:02Gavin Hayes (1–1)low · 51 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
1st 4:26Penalty
1st 12:09Jamie Engelbert (1–2)medium · rebound · 12 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
1st 14:33Penalty
1st 14:45Matthew Seminoff (2–2)5v4 · medium · 23 ft · beat Stanislav Berezhnoy
1st 16:15Penalty
1st 17:57Penalty
1st 19:57Dmitry Kuzmin (2–3)5v4 · low · 55 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 1:32Kevin Lombardi (2–4)low · 63 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 2:00Josh Lopina (2–5)high · 16 ft · beat Arno Tiefensee
2nd 10:51Penalty
2nd 11:10Gavin Hayes (2–6)5v4 · high · 13 ft · beat Arno Tiefensee
2nd 13:42Penalty
2nd 18:38Penalty
3rd 1:51Jamie Engelbert (2–7)medium · 16 ft · beat Arno Tiefensee
3rd 10:30Penalty
3rd 10:30Penalty
3rd 12:15Antonio Stranges (3–7)grade A · 194 ft · beat Stanislav Berezhnoy
3rd 12:38Penalty
3rd 12:38Penalty
3rd 15:37Harrison Scott (4–7)low · 32 ft · beat Stanislav Berezhnoy
3rd 16:09Kevin Lombardi (4–8)empty net · low · 46 ft · beat Arno Tiefensee