AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, December 27

Ontario Reign at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

Ontario Reign
3:0
Final
San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

ONTSJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
40%60%
xG
2.12.6
High danger
24
Chances
99
Shots
2132

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SJ above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal32
9Scoring chances9
2High-danger chances4
2.07Expected goals2.59

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–83–11–00.7–0.6
2nd7–133–60–40.7–1.4
3rd5–113–21–00.6–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SJ−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SJ212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Isaiah Saville
Shots faced
32
Saves
32
Allowed
0
xGA
2.59
GSAx
+2.59
Jakub Skarek
Shots faced
21
Saves
18
Allowed
3
xGA
2.07
GSAx
-0.93

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 12:29Penalty
  • 1st 16:17Aatu Jämsen (1–0)high · 8 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
  • 2nd 4:21Penalty
  • 2nd 4:21Penalty
  • 2nd 4:21Penalty
  • 2nd 9:06Penalty
  • 3rd 3:47Andre Lee (2–0)high · 14 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
  • 3rd 8:08Penalty
  • 3rd 13:36Penalty
  • 3rd 13:59Penalty
  • 3rd 13:59Penalty
  • 3rd 18:27Nikita Alexandrov (3–0)empty net · medium · 16 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 20:00Penalty