AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, December 27

Calgary Wranglers at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Calgary Wranglers
2:5
Final
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

CGYTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
30%70%
xG
2.42.5
High danger
15
Chances
1014
Shots
2922

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 67% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal22
10Scoring chances14
1High-danger chances5
2.42Expected goals2.54

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st5–60–20–10.2–0.6
2nd14–126–101–41.2–1.6
3rd10–44–20–01.0–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CGY−3−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CGY30:00 of the 3rd20:0018:47+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
29
Saves
27
Allowed
2
xGA
2.42
GSAx
+0.42
Owen Say
Shots faced
22
Saves
17
Allowed
5
xGA
2.54
GSAx
-2.46

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 6:13Penalty
  • 1st 9:19Sam Lipkin (0–1)low · 12 ft · beat Owen Say
  • 1st 18:33Maveric Lamoureux (0–2)low · 21 ft · beat Owen Say
  • 2nd 0:28Penalty
  • 2nd 4:12Owen Allard (0–3)medium · 17 ft · beat Owen Say
  • 2nd 6:42Penalty
  • 2nd 8:39Artem Duda (0–4)5v4 · medium · 33 ft · beat Owen Say
  • 2nd 11:06Penalty
  • 2nd 14:09Martin Frk (1–4)medium · 16 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 19:32Penalty
  • 2nd 19:32Penalty
  • 3rd 4:17Penalty
  • 3rd 8:28Penalty
  • 3rd 8:28Penalty
  • 3rd 8:28Penalty
  • 3rd 8:28Penalty
  • 3rd 8:28Penalty
  • 3rd 8:28Penalty
  • 3rd 8:28Penalty
  • 3rd 10:56Dryden Hunt (2–4)low · 42 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 15:29Penalty
  • 3rd 18:51Dmitri Simashev (2–5)empty net · low · 55 ft · beat Owen Say
  • 3rd 19:24Penalty
  • 3rd 19:24Penalty
  • 3rd 19:24Penalty
  • 3rd 19:24Penalty
  • 3rd 19:24Penalty
  • 3rd 19:24Penalty
  • 3rd 19:24Penalty
  • 3rd 19:24Penalty
  • 3rd 19:24Penalty
  • 3rd 19:24Penalty
  • 3rd 19:24Penalty