Abbotsford Canucks at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Abbotsford Canucks

2:3

Final / OT

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

ABBCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

49%51%

xG: 3.53.0
High danger: 56
Chances: 1514
Shots: 3628

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 61% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal28

15Scoring chances14

5High-danger chances6

3.53Expected goals2.99

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–11	5–6	2–1	1.2–0.9
2nd	11–5	7–1	1–0	1.3–0.5
3rd	12–11	3–7	2–5	1.1–1.5
OT	0–1	0–0	0–0	0.0–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ABB	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	0:12	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikke Kokko

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 34
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.53
GSAx: +1.53

Nikita Tolopilo

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 25
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.99
GSAx: -0.01

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:29Mitchell Stephens (0–1)medium · 25 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
2nd 0:48Penalty
2nd 15:56Ben Berard (1–1)medium · 19 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
2nd 17:31Andrei Loshko (1–2)low · 25 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
3rd 8:51Penalty
3rd 10:32Penalty
3rd 11:30Penalty
3rd 15:03Penalty
3rd 17:08Ben Berard (2–2)high · 22 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
3rd 18:14Penalty
OT 2:25Logan Morrison (2–3)low · 40 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo