San Diego Gulls at Bakersfield Condors

Dignity Health Arena · Bakersfield, CA

San Diego Gulls

5:2

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

SDBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

75%25%

xG: 3.52.0
High danger: 65
Chances: 186
Shots: 3821

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

38Shots on goal21

18Scoring chances6

6High-danger chances5

3.46Expected goals2.02

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–11	4–5	1–4	0.9–1.1
2nd	13–6	9–1	3–1	1.5–0.6
3rd	13–4	5–0	2–0	1.1–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	17:51	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matt Tomkins

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 33
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.46
GSAx: -1.54

Ville Husso

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 19
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.02
GSAx: +0.02

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:56Penalty
1st 2:28Ryan Carpenter (1–0)4v5 · medium · backhand · 12 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
1st 3:34Quinn Hutson (1–1)5v4 · high · slap · 29 ft · beat Ville Husso
1st 6:34Penalty
1st 9:08Jan Myšák (2–1)low · wrist · rebound · 15 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
1st 9:42Penalty
1st 15:08Penalty
1st 15:49Justin Bailey (3–1)5v4 · high · wrist · 10 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
1st 16:10Penalty
1st 19:38Penalty
2nd 2:42Penalty
2nd 7:47Penalty
2nd 8:14Penalty
2nd 10:25Stian Solberg (4–1)medium · wrist · 29 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
2nd 16:58Penalty
3rd 10:00Atro Leppänen (4–2)low · slap · 31 ft · beat Ville Husso
3rd 16:59Penalty
3rd 17:07Nico Myatovic (5–2)empty net · medium · wrist · 32 ft · beat Matt Tomkins