Utica Comets at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Utica Comets

0:7

Final

Belleville Senators

The sheet

UTCBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

22%78%

xG: 2.22.5
High danger: 03
Chances: 711
Shots: 3123

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BEL above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 43% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal23

7Scoring chances11

0High-danger chances3

2.16Expected goals2.48

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–8	2–2	0–2	0.7–0.7
2nd	9–11	2–5	0–1	0.6–1.2
3rd	12–4	3–4	0–0	0.9–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
UTC	5	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.005 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mads Søgaard

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 31
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.16
GSAx: +2.16

Jakub Málek

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 14
Allowed: 5
xGA: 1.87
GSAx: -3.13

Nico Daws

Shots faced: 4
Saves: 2
Allowed: 2
xGA: 0.60
GSAx: -1.40

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:12Penalty
1st 5:13Oskar Pettersson (0–1)4v5 · low · 25 ft · beat Jakub Málek
1st 15:55Penalty
1st 15:55Penalty
1st 15:55Penalty
1st 17:39Landen Hookey (0–2)5v4 · high · 17 ft · beat Jakub Málek
1st 18:13Penalty
2nd 3:49Penalty
2nd 4:46Penalty
2nd 7:46Oskar Pettersson (0–3)high · 14 ft · beat Jakub Málek
2nd 10:06Penalty
2nd 10:24Arthur Kaliyev (0–4)5v4 · medium · 29 ft · beat Jakub Málek
2nd 11:11Penalty
2nd 17:55Olle Lycksell (0–5)medium · 29 ft · beat Jakub Málek
2nd 18:48Penalty
3rd 1:20Penalty
3rd 5:03Penalty
3rd 5:03Penalty
3rd 17:27Landen Hookey (0–6)medium · 12 ft · beat Nico Daws
3rd 19:47Oskar Pettersson (0–7)medium · 12 ft · beat Nico Daws