AHLDashboard
‹ Sunday, December 28

Bridgeport Islanders at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Bridgeport Islanders
3:4
Final / OT
Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

BRISPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
75%25%
xG
3.61.8
High danger
73
Chances
136
Shots
4018

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SPR above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

40Shots on goal18
13Scoring chances6
7High-danger chances3
3.57Expected goals1.83

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–51–10–00.6–0.3
2nd15–38–04–01.6–0.2
3rd14–94–53–31.4–1.3
OT0–10–00–00.0–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SPR−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SPR212:09 of the 3rd7:512:53+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Georgii Romanov
Shots faced
40
Saves
37
Allowed
3
xGA
3.57
GSAx
+0.57
Henrik Tikkanen
Shots faced
18
Saves
14
Allowed
4
xGA
1.83
GSAx
-2.17

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 6:26Penalty
  • 1st 6:33Samuel Johannesson (0–1)5v4 · medium · 35 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
  • 2nd 4:30Joey Larson (1–1)high · 13 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
  • 2nd 8:10Penalty
  • 2nd 9:04Penalty
  • 2nd 15:35Cam Thiesing (2–1)medium · 29 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
  • 3rd 2:01Penalty
  • 3rd 3:57Sean Day (3–1)low · 44 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
  • 3rd 11:14Penalty
  • 3rd 13:03Marc-André Gaudet (3–2)5v4 · low · 40 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
  • 3rd 18:55Dillon Dube (3–3)grade A · 7 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen
  • OT 0:43Matt Luff (3–4)low · 7 ft · beat Henrik Tikkanen