Charlotte Checkers at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Charlotte Checkers

3:2

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

CLTHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

48%52%

xG: 2.53.1
High danger: 76
Chances: 1212
Shots: 2226

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 38% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal26

12Scoring chances12

7High-danger chances6

2.52Expected goals3.11

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–9	3–6	3–4	0.6–1.4
2nd	5–3	1–2	0–1	0.3–0.4
3rd	11–14	8–4	4–1	1.6–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	1	18:42 of the 3rd	1:18	1:18	+0.030 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cooper Black

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 24
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.11
GSAx: +1.11

Mitch Gibson

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 19
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.52
GSAx: -0.48

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:28Nate Smith (1–0)high · 7 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
1st 14:26Penalty
2nd 2:10Penalty
2nd 3:34Penalty
2nd 6:40Penalty
2nd 9:50Penalty
2nd 18:31Michael Benning (2–0)medium · 20 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
2nd 18:45Penalty
2nd 18:45Penalty
2nd 18:45Penalty
2nd 18:45Penalty
2nd 19:24Penalty
3rd 4:28Penalty
3rd 6:20Spencer Smallman (2–1)5v4 · medium · 28 ft · beat Cooper Black
3rd 7:01Penalty
3rd 8:09Louie Belpedio (2–2)5v4 · low · 49 ft · beat Cooper Black
3rd 16:23Penalty
3rd 18:42Sandis Vilmanis (3–2)medium · 15 ft · beat Mitch Gibson