AHLDashboard
‹ Monday, December 29

Charlotte Checkers at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Charlotte Checkers
3:2
Final / OT
Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

CLTLVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
93%7%
xG
3.91.4
High danger
101
Chances
144
Shots
3513

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
LV above the lineCLT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 38% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal13
14Scoring chances4
10High-danger chances1
3.88Expected goals1.42

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–12–01–00.7–0.0
2nd17–411–09–02.5–0.3
3rd7–81–40–10.5–1.1
OT3–00–00–00.2–0.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

LV−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
LV212:09 of the 3rd7:517:49+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Carson Bjarnason
Shots faced
35
Saves
32
Allowed
3
xGA
3.88
GSAx
+0.88
Louis Domingue
Shots faced
13
Saves
11
Allowed
2
xGA
1.42
GSAx
-0.58

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 11:48Nate Smith (1–0)high · 8 ft · beat Carson Bjarnason
  • 1st 14:45Penalty
  • 1st 19:11Penalty
  • 2nd 6:10Penalty
  • 2nd 7:25Penalty
  • 2nd 7:46Penalty
  • 2nd 9:09Penalty
  • 2nd 16:28Penalty
  • 3rd 4:43Gracyn Sawchyn (2–0)medium · 24 ft · beat Carson Bjarnason
  • 3rd 5:05Penalty
  • 3rd 17:38Penalty
  • 3rd 19:28Alexis Gendron (2–1)5v4 · medium · 60 ft · beat Louis Domingue
  • 3rd 19:58Tucker Robertson (2–2)low · rebound · 18 ft · beat Louis Domingue
  • OT 2:08Nolan Foote (3–2)low · 26 ft · beat Carson Bjarnason