Texas Stars at Iowa Wild

Casey’s Center · Des Moines, IA

Texas Stars

1:4

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

TEXIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

77%23%

xG: 3.72.5
High danger: 81
Chances: 1410
Shots: 2930

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal30

14Scoring chances10

8High-danger chances1

3.70Expected goals2.46

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–7	7–0	2–0	1.2–0.3
2nd	6–11	3–4	2–0	0.8–1.0
3rd	12–12	4–6	4–1	1.7–1.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TEX	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Arno Tiefensee

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 26
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.47
GSAx: -1.53

Riley Mercer

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 28
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.70
GSAx: +2.70

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

2nd 4:43Penalty
2nd 7:34Penalty
2nd 8:15Gerry Mayhew (0–1)5v4 · medium · 12 ft · beat Arno Tiefensee
2nd 10:04Penalty
3rd 1:54Bradley Marek (0–2)low · 26 ft · beat Arno Tiefensee
3rd 2:52Penalty
3rd 4:45Artem Shlaine (1–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Riley Mercer
3rd 7:29Penalty
3rd 7:42Ben Jones (1–3)5v4 · high · tip · 9 ft · beat Arno Tiefensee
3rd 18:56Ryan Sandelin (1–4)empty net · low · 137 ft · beat Arno Tiefensee