AHLDashboard
‹ Tuesday, December 30

Colorado Eagles at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Colorado Eagles
6:5
Final / OT
Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

COLCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
64%36%
xG
3.72.5
High danger
55
Chances
1111
Shots
3726

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CGY above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 29% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal26
11Scoring chances11
5High-danger chances5
3.71Expected goals2.46

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–92–42–10.8–0.9
2nd7–142–71–40.6–1.5
3rd17–25–01–01.6–0.1
OT3–12–01–00.7–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

COL0:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
COL116:56 of the 3rd3:040:52+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Arsenii Sergeev
Shots faced
37
Saves
31
Allowed
6
xGA
3.71
GSAx
-2.29
Trent Miner
Shots faced
26
Saves
21
Allowed
5
xGA
2.47
GSAx
-2.53

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 0:07Penalty
  • 1st 0:41Jayson Megna (1–0)5v4 · high · tip · 10 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
  • 1st 7:54Matthew Stienburg (2–0)high · 19 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
  • 1st 8:13Penalty
  • 1st 13:11Penalty
  • 1st 15:11Parker Bell (2–1)high · 11 ft · beat Trent Miner
  • 2nd 5:13Tye Felhaber (3–1)high · wrist · 10 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
  • 2nd 8:44William Strömgren (3–2)high · wrist · 15 ft · beat Trent Miner
  • 2nd 9:09Dryden Hunt (3–3)medium · wrist · 28 ft · beat Trent Miner
  • 2nd 11:10Penalty
  • 2nd 11:43William Strömgren (3–4)5v4 · high · tip · 11 ft · beat Trent Miner
  • 2nd 15:53Penalty
  • 2nd 18:49Rory Kerins (3–5)medium · wrist · 19 ft · beat Trent Miner
  • 3rd 3:53Penalty
  • 3rd 6:07Tristen Nielsen (4–5)medium · 18 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
  • 3rd 17:48Jayson Megna (5–5)medium · slap · 24 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev
  • OT 3:14Jack Ahcan (6–5)medium · slap · 50 ft · beat Arsenii Sergeev