Ontario Reign at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

Ontario Reign

3:2

Final / SO

Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

ONTHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

62%38%

xG: 3.92.4
High danger: 55
Chances: 136
Shots: 3127

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HSK above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal27

13Scoring chances6

5High-danger chances5

3.88Expected goals2.42

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	5–9	2–1	0–1	0.5–0.7
2nd	8–9	2–4	1–3	0.6–0.9
3rd	15–6	7–1	4–1	2.4–0.7
OT	3–3	2–0	0–0	0.4–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ONT	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	2:39	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Carl Lindbom

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 29
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.88
GSAx: +1.88

Isaiah Saville

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 25
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.43
GSAx: +0.43

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:11Penalty
1st 4:18Mitch McLain (0–1)low · 17 ft · beat Isaiah Saville
1st 6:22Penalty
2nd 10:53Penalty
2nd 15:12Penalty
2nd 16:39Penalty
2nd 18:56Penalty
3rd 13:37Taylor Ward (1–1)medium · wrist · rebound · 32 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
3rd 15:01Ben Hemmerling (1–2)grade A · wrist · rebound · 12 ft · beat Isaiah Saville
3rd 19:35Andre Lee (2–2)grade A · backhand · 13 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
OT 3:49Penalty
OT 3:49Penalty