AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, December 31

Hershey Bears at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Hershey Bears
0:3
Final
Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

HERLVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
23%77%
xG
2.22.7
High danger
03
Chances
711
Shots
3132

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
LV above the lineHER belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal32
7Scoring chances11
0High-danger chances3
2.24Expected goals2.65

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–180–50–00.4–1.2
2nd14–64–30–01.1–0.7
3rd10–83–30–30.8–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HER−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HER212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Clay Stevenson
Shots faced
32
Saves
29
Allowed
3
xGA
2.65
GSAx
-0.35
Aleksei Kolosov
Shots faced
31
Saves
31
Allowed
0
xGA
2.24
GSAx
+2.24

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 4:20Lane Pederson (0–1)medium · 29 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 1st 8:59Lane Pederson (0–2)low · 37 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
  • 2nd 1:48Penalty
  • 2nd 5:12Penalty
  • 2nd 5:12Penalty
  • 2nd 9:13Penalty
  • 2nd 9:13Penalty
  • 2nd 14:57Penalty
  • 3rd 2:52Penalty
  • 3rd 10:07Penalty
  • 3rd 10:07Penalty
  • 3rd 19:24Maxence Guenette (0–3)empty net · low · 118 ft · beat Clay Stevenson