Providence Bruins at Springfield Thunderbirds

MassMutual Center · Springfield, MA

Providence Bruins

2:4

Final

Springfield Thunderbirds

The sheet

PROSPRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

86%14%

xG: 3.82.1
High danger: 81
Chances: 146
Shots: 4225

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SPR above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 42% SPR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

42Shots on goal25

14Scoring chances6

8High-danger chances1

3.76Expected goals2.05

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	17–7	4–2	3–0	1.3–0.4
2nd	12–9	4–3	2–1	1.0–1.0
3rd	13–9	6–1	3–0	1.4–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
PRO	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	4:35	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 42
Saves: 40
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.76
GSAx: +1.76

Simon Zajicek

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 21
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.05
GSAx: -1.95

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:01Victor Söderström (1–0)low · rebound · 65 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
1st 5:17Matt Luff (1–1)medium · 20 ft · beat Simon Zajicek
1st 8:38Penalty
1st 8:38Penalty
1st 8:38Penalty
1st 10:52Penalty
1st 12:42Jakub Stancl (1–2)5v4 · medium · 30 ft · beat Simon Zajicek
2nd 10:28Sam Stange (1–3)medium · 21 ft · beat Simon Zajicek
2nd 16:57Penalty
3rd 0:20Penalty
3rd 0:20Penalty
3rd 0:20Penalty
3rd 0:20Penalty
3rd 4:01Penalty
3rd 7:23Penalty
3rd 12:13Penalty
3rd 13:40Patrick Brown (2–3)5v4 · high · 6 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
3rd 15:02Penalty
3rd 15:02Penalty
3rd 15:02Penalty
3rd 15:02Penalty
3rd 18:38Aleksanteri Kaskimäki (2–4)empty net · low · 140 ft · beat Simon Zajicek