Abbotsford Canucks at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Abbotsford Canucks

5:2

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

ABBMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

70%30%

xG: 3.02.5
High danger: 62
Chances: 126
Shots: 2837

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineABB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal37

12Scoring chances6

6High-danger chances2

2.96Expected goals2.49

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–6	5–1	3–0	1.4–0.4
2nd	7–21	3–4	1–2	0.8–1.4
3rd	9–10	4–1	2–0	0.8–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikita Tolopilo

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 35
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.49
GSAx: +0.49

Domenic DiVincentiis

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 23
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.96
GSAx: -2.04

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:21Danny Zhilkin (0–1)medium · 21 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
1st 10:22Penalty
1st 17:07Penalty
1st 17:07Penalty
1st 17:27Penalty
1st 18:45Danila Klimovich (1–1)5v4 · medium · 22 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
1st 19:27Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
2nd 3:15Lukas Reichel (2–1)medium · 10 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
2nd 3:18Penalty
2nd 5:08Ty Mueller (3–1)5v4 · medium · 17 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
2nd 9:53Penalty
2nd 10:30Penalty
2nd 13:49Elias Salomonsson (3–2)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
2nd 18:25Arshdeep Bains (4–2)low · 17 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
2nd 19:32Penalty
3rd 3:42Penalty
3rd 6:16Penalty
3rd 16:36Arshdeep Bains (5–2)empty net · high · 15 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
3rd 18:35Penalty