Texas Stars at Iowa Wild

Casey’s Center · Des Moines, IA

Texas Stars

3:2

Final / OT

Iowa Wild

The sheet

TEXIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

38%62%

xG: 2.73.8
High danger: 25
Chances: 1010
Shots: 3626

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal26

10Scoring chances10

2High-danger chances5

2.75Expected goals3.78

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–13	6–4	1–1	1.3–1.1
2nd	8–4	1–1	0–0	0.6–0.3
3rd	13–7	3–3	1–2	0.8–1.5
OT	1–2	0–2	0–2	0.1–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	2:41	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Samuel Hlavaj

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 33
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.75
GSAx: -0.25

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 24
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.78
GSAx: +1.78

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:09Penalty
1st 4:56Jack Becker (1–0)medium · 24 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
1st 6:35Penalty
1st 13:55Penalty
1st 14:48David Špaček (1–1)5v4 · low · 53 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 6:04Penalty
2nd 13:42Jack Becker (2–1)medium · 10 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
2nd 16:29Penalty
3rd 19:37Ben Jones (2–2)grade A · 14 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
OT 2:24Nathan Bastian (3–2)low · 33 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj