San Diego Gulls at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

San Diego Gulls

4:3

Final / OT

Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

SDTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

72%28%

xG: 4.02.8
High danger: 64
Chances: 159
Shots: 3529

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TUC above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal29

15Scoring chances9

6High-danger chances4

4.03Expected goals2.82

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–12	1–5	1–3	0.4–1.3
2nd	7–8	5–1	1–0	1.0–0.5
3rd	19–6	8–3	3–1	2.2–0.9
OT	3–3	1–0	1–0	0.4–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SD	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	2:39	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jaxson Stauber

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 31
Allowed: 4
xGA: 4.03
GSAx: +0.03

Ville Husso

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.82
GSAx: -0.18

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:35Ben McCartney (0–1)grade A · rebound · 16 ft · beat Ville Husso
1st 12:06Penalty
2nd 5:59Dmitri Simashev (0–2)low · 29 ft · beat Ville Husso
2nd 6:18Penalty
2nd 8:28Artem Duda (0–3)low · 42 ft · beat Ville Husso
2nd 10:58Penalty
3rd 1:34Penalty
3rd 2:39Jan Myšák (1–3)5v4 · high · 13 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
3rd 6:18Penalty
3rd 8:02Matthew Phillips (2–3)5v4 · medium · 24 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
3rd 9:34Sasha Pastujov (3–3)medium · 22 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
3rd 13:49Penalty
OT 4:01Tim Washe (4–3)grade A · 39 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber