AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, December 31

Bakersfield Condors at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Bakersfield Condors
7:3
Final
Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

BAKCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
62%38%
xG
4.33.3
High danger
76
Chances
1914
Shots
3531

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CV above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 59% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal31
19Scoring chances14
7High-danger chances6
4.29Expected goals3.29

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–115–33–11.4–0.9
2nd14–67–32–31.6–0.7
3rd11–147–82–21.3–1.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CV−3−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CV30:00 of the 3rd20:0017:32+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikke Kokko
Shots faced
34
Saves
28
Allowed
6
xGA
4.29
GSAx
-1.71
Connor Ungar
Shots faced
31
Saves
28
Allowed
3
xGA
3.29
GSAx
+0.29

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 10:14Penalty
  • 1st 10:52Sam Poulin (1–0)4v5 · high · 13 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 1st 19:24James Hamblin (2–0)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 2nd 2:59Penalty
  • 2nd 5:30Quinn Hutson (3–0)low · 38 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 2nd 9:46Andrei Loshko (3–1)high · rebound · 9 ft · beat Connor Ungar
  • 2nd 13:39Penalty
  • 2nd 18:22Penalty
  • 2nd 19:36Isaac Howard (4–1)5v4 · high · 27 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 2nd 20:00Penalty
  • 3rd 9:23Penalty
  • 3rd 9:26Jani Nyman (4–2)5v4 · medium · 23 ft · beat Connor Ungar
  • 3rd 11:54Sam Poulin (5–2)medium · 26 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 3rd 12:41Lleyton Roed (5–3)low · 36 ft · beat Connor Ungar
  • 3rd 14:51Quinn Hutson (6–3)high · 11 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
  • 3rd 17:56Penalty
  • 3rd 19:45Beau Akey (7–3)empty net · low · 126 ft