AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, December 31

San Jose Barracuda at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

San Jose Barracuda
5:4
Final
Ontario Reign

The sheet

SJONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
62%38%
xG
2.92.2
High danger
32
Chances
88
Shots
3122

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ONT above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 54% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal22
8Scoring chances8
3High-danger chances2
2.88Expected goals2.25

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st4–120–20–00.3–0.7
2nd17–46–23–11.9–0.6
3rd10–62–40–10.7–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ONT0:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ONT119:59 of the 3rd0:010:01+0.000 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Pheonix Copley
Shots faced
31
Saves
26
Allowed
5
xGA
2.89
GSAx
-2.11
Gabriel Carriere
Shots faced
22
Saves
18
Allowed
4
xGA
2.25
GSAx
-1.75

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 10:28Penalty
  • 1st 10:57Cole Guttman (0–1)5v4 · low · 59 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 1st 16:58Penalty
  • 1st 16:58Penalty
  • 1st 18:32Penalty
  • 1st 18:32Penalty
  • 2nd 2:42Oliver Wahlstrom (1–1)medium · 18 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 2nd 5:27Ethan Cardwell (2–1)high · 17 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 2nd 8:20Penalty
  • 2nd 11:05Penalty
  • 2nd 11:05Penalty
  • 2nd 11:05Penalty
  • 2nd 12:41Filip Bystedt (3–1)4v5 · medium · 32 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 2nd 13:13Kenny Connors (3–2)grade A · rebound · 22 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 2nd 19:19Egor Afanasyev (4–2)low · 28 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 3rd 1:20Cole Guttman (4–3)medium · 11 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 3rd 1:45Tim Rego (4–4)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 3rd 6:41Penalty
  • 3rd 19:59Lucas Carlsson (5–4)low · 22 ft · beat Pheonix Copley