AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, January 2

Providence Bruins at Hartford Wolf Pack

PeoplesBank Arena · Hartford, CT

Providence Bruins
4:1
Final
Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

PROHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
74%26%
xG
2.82.6
High danger
62
Chances
127
Shots
3332

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HFD above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 40% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal32
12Scoring chances7
6High-danger chances2
2.82Expected goals2.56

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st9–153–22–10.8–1.2
2nd17–97–32–11.4–0.7
3rd7–82–22–00.7–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HFD−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HFD116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Spencer Martin
Shots faced
33
Saves
29
Allowed
4
xGA
2.82
GSAx
-1.18
Michael DiPietro
Shots faced
32
Saves
31
Allowed
1
xGA
2.56
GSAx
+1.56

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 17:01Matěj Blümel (1–0)low · 39 ft · beat Spencer Martin
  • 2nd 6:31Penalty
  • 2nd 9:13Brennan Othmann (1–1)low · 16 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
  • 2nd 13:06Penalty
  • 2nd 13:06Penalty
  • 2nd 15:12Penalty
  • 2nd 18:06Dans Locmelis (2–1)medium · 9 ft · beat Spencer Martin
  • 2nd 18:49Penalty
  • 2nd 18:49Penalty
  • 2nd 19:38Penalty
  • 3rd 6:44Penalty
  • 3rd 17:42Georgii Merkulov (3–1)empty net · low · 50 ft · beat Spencer Martin
  • 3rd 18:27Dans Locmelis (4–1)empty net · low · 49 ft · beat Spencer Martin