AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, January 2

Tucson Roadrunners at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Tucson Roadrunners
5:2
Final
Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

TUCCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
87%13%
xG
4.91.7
High danger
125
Chances
205
Shots
4320

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CGY above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 38% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

43Shots on goal20
20Scoring chances5
12High-danger chances5
4.90Expected goals1.73

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st15–97–13–11.8–0.7
2nd19–49–15–12.1–0.3
3rd9–74–34–31.0–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CGY−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CGY38:01 of the 3rd11:5911:59+0.017 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Owen Say
Shots faced
43
Saves
38
Allowed
5
xGA
4.90
GSAx
-0.10
Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
20
Saves
18
Allowed
2
xGA
1.73
GSAx
-0.27

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:07Penalty
  • 1st 7:49Rory Kerins (0–1)high · wrist · 6 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 16:45Penalty
  • 1st 17:27Penalty
  • 1st 18:33Austin Poganski (1–1)5v4 · grade A · wrist · 9 ft · beat Owen Say
  • 1st 19:19Cameron Hebig (2–1)5v4 · grade A · 6 ft · beat Owen Say
  • 1st 19:46Penalty
  • 2nd 1:46Penalty
  • 2nd 16:35Penalty
  • 2nd 19:45Juuso Välimäki (3–1)low · 47 ft · beat Owen Say
  • 3rd 0:18Penalty
  • 3rd 0:40Penalty
  • 3rd 2:03Penalty
  • 3rd 8:01Miko Matikka (4–1)high · 15 ft · beat Owen Say
  • 3rd 15:49Lucas Ciona (4–2)high · tip · 9 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 16:34Penalty
  • 3rd 17:25Ben McCartney (5–2)4v5 · high · wrist · 12 ft · beat Owen Say