San Jose Barracuda at Bakersfield Condors

Dignity Health Arena · Bakersfield, CA

San Jose Barracuda

1:4

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

SJBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

40%60%

xG: 3.03.0
High danger: 35
Chances: 138
Shots: 3131

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 46% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal31

13Scoring chances8

3High-danger chances5

3.03Expected goals3.04

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–8	7–1	1–0	1.3–0.6
2nd	11–11	3–4	1–2	1.0–1.3
3rd	9–12	3–3	1–3	0.7–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SJ	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matt Tomkins

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 30
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.03
GSAx: +2.03

Jakub Skarek

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 27
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.04
GSAx: -0.96

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:19Filip Bystedt (1–0)medium · wrist · 25 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
1st 6:22Penalty
1st 6:22Penalty
1st 6:22Penalty
1st 8:48Max Jones (1–1)low · wrist · 28 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
1st 14:45Penalty
1st 16:26Penalty
1st 17:44Penalty
1st 17:44Penalty
2nd 2:18Roby Järventie (1–2)low · wrist · 36 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
2nd 7:29Penalty
2nd 11:33Penalty
2nd 14:27Penalty
2nd 14:27Penalty
2nd 14:27Penalty
3rd 8:01Connor Clattenburg (1–3)low · wrist · 24 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
3rd 14:14Penalty
3rd 14:14Penalty
3rd 14:14Penalty
3rd 17:07Seth Griffith (1–4)empty net · low · wrist · 86 ft · beat Jakub Skarek