AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, January 3

Rochester Americans at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Rochester Americans
4:6
Final
Toronto Marlies

The sheet

ROCTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
53%47%
xG
3.02.7
High danger
23
Chances
1010
Shots
3528

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TOR above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 60% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal28
10Scoring chances10
2High-danger chances3
2.95Expected goals2.70

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st15–52–10–01.0–0.3
2nd8–163–60–20.8–1.8
3rd12–75–32–11.2–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ROC−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ROC212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Artur Akhtyamov
Shots faced
35
Saves
31
Allowed
4
xGA
2.95
GSAx
-1.05
Devon Levi
Shots faced
21
Saves
16
Allowed
5
xGA
2.09
GSAx
-2.91
Scott Ratzlaff
Shots faced
7
Saves
6
Allowed
1
xGA
0.61
GSAx
-0.39

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:33Penalty
  • 1st 9:15Nikita Novikov (1–0)low · 57 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
  • 1st 12:34Benoit-Olivier Groulx (1–1)low · 39 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 1st 13:20Isak Rosén (2–1)medium · 16 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
  • 2nd 1:29William Villeneuve (2–2)low · 39 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 2nd 2:57Penalty
  • 2nd 8:21Riley Fiddler-Schultz (3–2)medium · 21 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
  • 2nd 10:33Alex Nylander (3–3)medium · 11 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 2nd 12:31Penalty
  • 2nd 12:41Penalty
  • 2nd 13:25Alex Nylander (3–4)grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 2nd 17:51Borya Valis (3–5)medium · 21 ft · beat Devon Levi
  • 3rd 0:37Penalty
  • 3rd 1:05Trevor Kuntar (4–5)5v4 · high · 12 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
  • 3rd 1:40Penalty
  • 3rd 3:52Marc Johnstone (4–6)low · 57 ft · beat Scott Ratzlaff