AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, January 3

Rockford IceHogs at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Rockford IceHogs
4:5
Final
Hershey Bears

The sheet

RFDHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
65%35%
xG
2.72.0
High danger
64
Chances
118
Shots
2723

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HER above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 59% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal23
11Scoring chances8
6High-danger chances4
2.66Expected goals2.00

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–53–22–11.0–0.4
2nd6–94–42–20.8–0.9
3rd11–94–22–10.9–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

RFD−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
RFD116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mitch Gibson
Shots faced
27
Saves
23
Allowed
4
xGA
2.66
GSAx
-1.34
Drew Commesso
Shots faced
23
Saves
18
Allowed
5
xGA
2.00
GSAx
-3.00

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:16Penalty
  • 1st 2:10Henrik Rybinski (0–1)4v5 · medium · 19 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 1st 3:46Penalty
  • 1st 3:46Penalty
  • 1st 4:34Dominic Toninato (1–1)medium · 16 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
  • 1st 5:53Penalty
  • 1st 8:24Penalty
  • 1st 8:24Penalty
  • 2nd 0:19Jamie Engelbert (2–1)high · 8 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
  • 2nd 4:30Penalty
  • 2nd 6:50Dmitry Kuzmin (3–1)medium · 25 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
  • 2nd 10:10Penalty
  • 2nd 10:41Ilya Protas (3–2)5v4 · high · rebound · 10 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 2nd 12:10Penalty
  • 2nd 16:01Penalty
  • 2nd 16:22Brett Seney (4–2)5v4 · high · 6 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
  • 2nd 18:51Brett Leason (4–3)medium · 19 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 2nd 19:57Penalty
  • 3rd 1:20Cam Allen (4–4)5v4 · low · 39 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 3rd 3:32Penalty
  • 3rd 8:10Aaron Ness (4–5)low · 38 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 3rd 9:44Penalty