Lehigh Valley Phantoms at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

3:1

Final

Belleville Senators

The sheet

LVBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

72%28%

xG: 2.61.9
High danger: 31
Chances: 126
Shots: 2725

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BEL above the lineLV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal25

12Scoring chances6

3High-danger chances1

2.58Expected goals1.87

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–9	3–0	1–0	0.7–0.4
2nd	10–9	4–2	0–0	0.9–0.6
3rd	8–7	5–4	2–1	0.9–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BEL	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	11:54	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mads Søgaard

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 24
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.58
GSAx: -0.42

Carson Bjarnason

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 24
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.87
GSAx: +0.87

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:07Penalty
1st 10:37Ty Murchison (1–0)medium · 25 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
1st 14:04Helge Grans (2–0)low · 40 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
1st 20:00Penalty
1st 20:00Penalty
2nd 1:49Jacob Gaucher (3–0)low · 46 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
2nd 1:53Penalty
2nd 10:13Penalty
3rd 2:04Penalty
3rd 3:14Penalty
3rd 3:32Penalty
3rd 4:03Arthur Kaliyev (3–1)5v4 · medium · 47 ft · beat Carson Bjarnason
3rd 19:05Penalty