AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, January 3

Coachella Valley Firebirds at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Coachella Valley Firebirds
2:3
Final
Ontario Reign

The sheet

CVONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
31%69%
xG
1.32.2
High danger
11
Chances
38
Shots
2125

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.52P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ONT above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal25
3Scoring chances8
1High-danger chances1
1.28Expected goals2.21

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–91–31–10.4–1.0
2nd11–52–10–00.8–0.3
3rd4–110–40–00.1–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CV−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CV116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Victor Östman
Shots faced
25
Saves
22
Allowed
3
xGA
2.21
GSAx
-0.79
Pheonix Copley
Shots faced
21
Saves
19
Allowed
2
xGA
1.28
GSAx
-0.72

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:46Ian McKinnon (1–0)high · 21 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 1st 4:55Penalty
  • 1st 6:00Andre Lee (1–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Victor Östman
  • 1st 14:38Penalty
  • 2nd 3:44Penalty
  • 2nd 9:40Jakov Novak (2–1)medium · 9 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 2nd 11:44Penalty
  • 2nd 14:04Penalty
  • 3rd 5:54Cole Guttman (2–2)medium · 25 ft · beat Victor Östman
  • 3rd 7:06Penalty
  • 3rd 14:55Kirill Kirsanov (2–3)medium · 15 ft · beat Victor Östman
  • 3rd 19:51Penalty
  • 3rd 19:51Penalty