Rockford IceHogs at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Rockford IceHogs

2:5

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

RFDHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

35%65%

xG: 1.72.4
High danger: 33
Chances: 48
Shots: 2227

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 59% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal27

4Scoring chances8

3High-danger chances3

1.69Expected goals2.37

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–10	1–3	1–2	0.4–0.9
2nd	10–10	3–4	2–1	1.1–1.1
3rd	6–7	0–1	0–0	0.2–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Laurent Brossoit

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 22
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.37
GSAx: -2.63

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 20
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.69
GSAx: -0.31

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:55Louie Belpedio (0–1)low · 59 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit
1st 19:38Gavin Hayes (1–1)high · 16 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 0:30Gavin Hayes (2–1)grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 10:26Penalty
2nd 12:17Graeme Clarke (2–2)5v4 · high · 15 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit
2nd 13:11Graeme Clarke (2–3)medium · 16 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit
3rd 8:23Ryan Chesley (2–4)medium · 7 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit
3rd 10:23Penalty
3rd 16:35Graeme Clarke (2–5)empty net · low · 149 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit
3rd 18:51Penalty