Milwaukee Admirals at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

Milwaukee Admirals

1:4

Final

Texas Stars

The sheet

MILTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

90%10%

xG: 4.81.4
High danger: 83
Chances: 165
Shots: 4318

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

43Shots on goal18

16Scoring chances5

8High-danger chances3

4.80Expected goals1.40

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	15–10	6–3	3–2	1.7–0.8
2nd	13–6	4–2	2–1	1.2–0.5
3rd	15–2	6–0	3–0	1.9–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MIL	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	16:48	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Arno Tiefensee

Shots faced: 43
Saves: 42
Allowed: 1
xGA: 4.80
GSAx: +3.80

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 14
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.40
GSAx: -2.60

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:58Penalty
1st 6:26Penalty
1st 11:21Penalty
1st 13:31Cross Hanas (0–1)high · 12 ft · beat Matthew Murray
2nd 3:56Nathan Bastian (0–2)low · 35 ft · beat Matthew Murray
2nd 9:32Penalty
2nd 10:02Matthew Seminoff (0–3)5v4 · medium · 17 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 2:12Penalty
3rd 7:20Penalty
3rd 8:57Cole O’Hara (1–3)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 18 ft · beat Arno Tiefensee
3rd 18:39Artem Shlaine (1–4)empty net · low · 158 ft · beat Matthew Murray