Bakersfield Condors at Abbotsford Canucks

Rogers Forum · Abbotsford, BC

Bakersfield Condors

5:3

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

BAKABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

19%81%

xG: 1.43.2
High danger: 35
Chances: 412
Shots: 1839

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

18Shots on goal39

4Scoring chances12

3High-danger chances5

1.38Expected goals3.19

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	4–11	1–4	0–0	0.4–1.0
2nd	9–10	2–1	2–1	0.6–0.6
3rd	5–18	1–7	1–4	0.4–1.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ABB	3	5:30 of the 3rd	14:30	14:20	+0.020 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matt Tomkins

Shots faced: 39
Saves: 36
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.19
GSAx: +0.19

Nikita Tolopilo

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 13
Allowed: 5
xGA: 1.38
GSAx: -3.62

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:41Quinn Hutson (1–0)low · 29 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
1st 10:45Quinn Hutson (2–0)low · 35 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
1st 15:51Penalty
1st 17:03Penalty
2nd 15:01Chase Wouters (2–1)high · 7 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
2nd 15:58Penalty
2nd 17:44Damien Carfagna (3–1)5v4 · low · 50 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
3rd 5:30Seth Griffith (4–1)low · 44 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
3rd 5:50Penalty
3rd 7:27Chase Wouters (4–2)5v4 · high · 16 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
3rd 7:37Seth Griffith (5–2)high · 9 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
3rd 16:16Penalty
3rd 18:19Cooper Walker (5–3)high · 13 ft · beat Matt Tomkins