Henderson Silver Knights at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

Henderson Silver Knights

5:1

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

HSKCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

70%30%

xG: 4.03.3
High danger: 83
Chances: 1610
Shots: 3139

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal39

16Scoring chances10

8High-danger chances3

4.02Expected goals3.31

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–10	6–2	3–1	1.8–0.8
2nd	6–13	2–2	1–0	0.5–0.9
3rd	12–16	8–6	4–2	1.7–1.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CV	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Carl Lindbom

Shots faced: 39
Saves: 38
Allowed: 1
xGA: 3.30
GSAx: +2.30

Nikke Kokko

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 26
Allowed: 5
xGA: 4.02
GSAx: -0.98

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:19Penalty
1st 5:59Ben Hemmerling (1–0)5v4 · high · 11 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
1st 13:35Tanner Laczynski (2–0)grade A · rebound · 22 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
1st 16:58Penalty
1st 19:55Penalty
2nd 4:25Penalty
2nd 10:29Penalty
2nd 10:29Penalty
2nd 10:29Penalty
2nd 10:29Penalty
2nd 10:29Penalty
2nd 17:30Jonas Røndbjerg (3–0)low · 43 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
2nd 18:23Penalty
3rd 0:46Sloan Stanick (4–0)high · 9 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
3rd 0:53Penalty
3rd 4:43Penalty
3rd 5:11Logan Morrison (4–1)5v4 · medium · 13 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
3rd 6:55Penalty
3rd 7:52Penalty
3rd 8:30Tanner Laczynski (5–1)5v4 · high · 19 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
3rd 11:19Penalty
3rd 11:19Penalty
3rd 17:11Penalty
3rd 17:11Penalty
3rd 17:11Penalty
3rd 17:45Penalty