Iowa Wild at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Iowa Wild

3:4

Final

Ontario Reign

The sheet

IAONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

55%45%

xG: 2.42.2
High danger: 44
Chances: 88
Shots: 2720

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ONT above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 64% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal20

8Scoring chances8

4High-danger chances4

2.45Expected goals2.23

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–8	4–4	1–2	0.8–1.0
2nd	13–5	3–2	2–2	1.2–0.6
3rd	6–7	1–2	1–0	0.4–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 24
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.45
GSAx: -0.55

Riley Mercer

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 16
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.23
GSAx: -1.77

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:17Kenny Connors (0–1)medium · 4 ft · beat Riley Mercer
1st 2:44Penalty
1st 3:14Cole Guttman (0–2)5v4 · high · 16 ft · beat Riley Mercer
1st 5:46Penalty
1st 7:22Boris Katchouk (1–2)5v4 · medium · 29 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
1st 8:59Penalty
1st 14:32Penalty
1st 18:12Jared Wright (1–3)medium · 9 ft · beat Riley Mercer
2nd 8:30Carson Lambos (2–3)low · 42 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
2nd 12:23Martin Chromiak (2–4)grade A · 167 ft · beat Riley Mercer
2nd 15:44Penalty
2nd 16:40Gerry Mayhew (3–4)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 6:43Penalty