Bakersfield Condors at Abbotsford Canucks

Rogers Forum · Abbotsford, BC

Bakersfield Condors

4:1

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

BAKABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

39%61%

xG: 2.02.5
High danger: 35
Chances: 810
Shots: 2022

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal22

8Scoring chances10

3High-danger chances5

2.04Expected goals2.55

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–7	6–2	3–1	1.3–0.6
2nd	7–7	2–4	0–2	0.6–1.2
3rd	4–8	0–4	0–2	0.2–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ABB	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Connor Ungar

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 21
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.55
GSAx: +1.55

Jiří Patera

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 16
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.04
GSAx: -1.96

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:50Beau Akey (1–0)grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Jiří Patera
1st 5:36Josh Samanski (2–0)high · rebound · 11 ft · beat Jiří Patera
1st 9:55Penalty
1st 9:55Penalty
1st 11:16Penalty
1st 12:15Quinn Hutson (3–0)5v4 · high · 23 ft · beat Jiří Patera
1st 13:27Penalty
1st 13:27Penalty
2nd 6:46Penalty
2nd 13:29Penalty
2nd 14:04Chase Wouters (3–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 6 ft · beat Connor Ungar
2nd 17:23Penalty
3rd 9:22Penalty
3rd 17:16Seth Griffith (4–1)empty net · low · 54 ft · beat Jiří Patera