AHLDashboard
‹ Thursday, January 8

Manitoba Moose at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Manitoba Moose
3:7
Final
Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

MBMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
45%55%
xG
3.33.7
High danger
68
Chances
1116
Shots
3830

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
MIL above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

38Shots on goal30
11Scoring chances16
6High-danger chances8
3.26Expected goals3.66

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st16–74–43–01.3–0.6
2nd10–124–72–51.0–1.8
3rd12–113–51–30.9–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MB−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MB32:57 of the 3rd17:0317:03+0.022 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Magnus Chrona
Shots faced
38
Saves
35
Allowed
3
xGA
3.26
GSAx
+0.26
Domenic DiVincentiis
Shots faced
30
Saves
23
Allowed
7
xGA
3.66
GSAx
-3.34

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 13:29Jake Lucchini (0–1)medium · 20 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 1st 14:06Penalty
  • 1st 14:06Penalty
  • 1st 15:20Colby Barlow (1–1)high · 11 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 1st 16:09Mason Shaw (2–1)low · 26 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
  • 1st 19:49Penalty
  • 1st 19:49Penalty
  • 2nd 3:03Andreas Englund (2–2)grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 2nd 4:52Penalty
  • 2nd 9:57Penalty
  • 2nd 12:28Cole O’Hara (2–3)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 2nd 16:31Penalty
  • 2nd 17:40Daniel Carr (2–4)5v4 · high · 23 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 2nd 18:10Penalty
  • 3rd 0:48Penalty
  • 3rd 2:57Ryan Ufko (2–5)low · 39 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 3rd 3:48Andrew Gibson (2–6)low · 48 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 3rd 6:29Penalty
  • 3rd 6:29Penalty
  • 3rd 6:29Penalty
  • 3rd 6:29Penalty
  • 3rd 6:29Penalty
  • 3rd 6:29Penalty
  • 3rd 7:00Zach L’Heureux (2–7)5v4 · high · 12 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
  • 3rd 13:39Penalty
  • 3rd 13:39Penalty
  • 3rd 18:02Brad Lambert (3–7)low · 33 ft · beat Magnus Chrona