Belleville Senators at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Belleville Senators

1:6

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

BELTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

19%81%

xG: 1.52.5
High danger: 14
Chances: 39
Shots: 2026

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 63% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal26

3Scoring chances9

1High-danger chances4

1.46Expected goals2.50

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–10	1–2	1–0	0.8–0.7
2nd	5–10	1–5	0–3	0.4–1.1
3rd	4–6	1–2	0–1	0.3–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BEL	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Artur Akhtyamov

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 19
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.46
GSAx: +0.46

Hunter Shepard

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 15
Allowed: 5
xGA: 1.88
GSAx: -3.12

Jackson Parsons

Shots faced: 6
Saves: 5
Allowed: 1
xGA: 0.62
GSAx: -0.38

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 14:17Penalty
1st 19:24Reese Johnson (0–1)medium · 18 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
2nd 6:18Jacob Quillan (0–2)medium · 9 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
2nd 6:37Penalty
2nd 7:17Jacob Quillan (0–3)5v4 · high · 14 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
2nd 12:05Penalty
2nd 12:05Penalty
2nd 12:05Penalty
2nd 12:05Penalty
2nd 12:05Penalty
2nd 12:05Penalty
2nd 13:21Noah Chadwick (0–4)medium · 32 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
2nd 13:40Penalty
2nd 16:33Marc Johnstone (0–5)4v5 · high · 12 ft · beat Hunter Shepard
2nd 17:07Xavier Bourgault (1–5)medium · 9 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
2nd 19:22Penalty
2nd 19:22Penalty
2nd 19:22Penalty
3rd 1:04Jacob Quillan (1–6)5v4 · high · 15 ft · beat Jackson Parsons
3rd 13:58Penalty
3rd 16:31Penalty