Bridgeport Islanders at Providence Bruins

Amica Mutual Pavilion · Providence, RI

Bridgeport Islanders

1:4

Final

Providence Bruins

The sheet

BRIPROSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

15%85%

xG: 2.44.2
High danger: 29
Chances: 816
Shots: 2535

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

PRO above the lineBRI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 63% PRO.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal35

8Scoring chances16

2High-danger chances9

2.38Expected goals4.21

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–6	5–3	2–2	1.4–0.7
2nd	6–16	2–9	0–4	0.5–2.1
3rd	7–13	1–4	0–3	0.4–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BRI	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Marcus Högberg

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 31
Allowed: 4
xGA: 4.21
GSAx: +0.21

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 24
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.38
GSAx: +1.38

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:25Penalty
1st 14:53Cam Thiesing (1–0)low · 11 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
1st 16:32Penalty
1st 19:55Penalty
2nd 2:35Penalty
2nd 7:25Penalty
2nd 11:28Penalty
2nd 15:34Dans Locmelis (1–1)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
2nd 16:26Christian Wolanin (1–2)medium · 12 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
2nd 18:48Penalty
3rd 5:28Victor Söderström (1–3)low · 46 ft · beat Marcus Högberg
3rd 8:06Penalty
3rd 8:06Penalty
3rd 19:34Matěj Blümel (1–4)empty net · low · 62 ft · beat Marcus Högberg